Tesla will release quarterly delivery numbers at the top of the hour | Forexlive

Today is ‘Liberation Day’ for Donald Trump and his team but it’s also a big one for Elon Musk and the company that made him famous.

The consensus on Q1 deliveries is 377-380K and that will be a decline from 386,810 in the first quarter of 2024. The more-bearish analysts are at 350-355K and I suspect that’s closer to market pricing.

Analyst Gene Munster was on CNBC yesterday and said he had taken down his estimate but the long-time bull also dismissed the auto side, as many of the bulls do. That said, he argued that the political headwinds for Elon Musk’s personal brand will fade and that sales will rise 5% y/y in the fourth quarter of this year.

I doubt it.

Today’s quarterly numbers might also be overshadowed by monthly numbers in some regions, as those offer a better sense of the brand damage. Already we’ve seen some data from France showing a 37% y/y in March and Sweden down 64%. On the flipside, sales in Italy rose 51% in March (though they were down 7% in Q1 compared to last year).