‘India to have 123 million EVs on the road by 2032 under best-case scenario’

The adoption of EVs becomes critical, as the world’s fifth-largest economy prioritizes sustainable development and races to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, the report said. This can bolster India’s economy while supporting the ambitious target set for 2030—EV penetration of 30%.

The report, titled “India Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Market Overview,” outlined the potential impact of this transition on the country’s infrastructure and energy landscape.

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“By 2032, IESA and CES project that India’s on-road EV stock could reach approximately 49 million (worst case), 60 million (business-as-usual), or 123 million (NEV scenario),” said Vinayak Walimbe, managing director of Customized Energy Solutions India Pvt. Ltd. 

The National EV Targets (NEV) estimates are based on the assumption that by 2030, EV penetration reaches 80% for electric two- and three-wheelers, 30% for private electric four-wheelers, 70% for commercial cars, and 40% for electric buses, he added.

EV penetration refers to the share of electric vehicles among total vehicles in a system.

By 2032, the projected stock of electric cars is expected to rise to about 4.3 million, 5.8 million, and 10 million units under the worst case, business as usual (BAU), and NEV scenarios, respectively, the report said. In addition, electric buses and trucks could grow to around 450,000, 750,000, and 1.1 million units under the above conditions.

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The report estimated that India’s cumulative on-road lithium-ion electric vehicle (EV) population became nearly twelvefold to 4.4 million in 2024 from 0.35 million in 2019.

This rapid growth, it said, has been fuelled by supportive government policies, such as the FAME-II scheme, which offered demand incentives for electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and four-wheelers, along with capital subsidies for public charging infrastructure.

FAME stands for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles. The Union government implemented two iterations of the FAME scheme from FY15 to FY24.

Currently, the PM E-drive scheme has replaced FAME. Under this scheme, the government has directed its subsidy push towards public transportation by allocating about 40% of its ₹10,900 crore-outlay towards electric bus subsidies.

Notably, the personal electric four-wheeler (E4W) segment has emerged as a key driver of the country’s expanding private and home charging ecosystem.

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As per the report, in 2024, there were approximately 220,000 personal electric four-wheelers (E4Ws) on roads, most of which depended on Type-2 AC chargers installed in residential areas.

By that same year, India had an estimated 320,000 private Type-2 AC chargers, with 70% being 3.3 kW units, 28% 7.4 kW units, and the remaining 11-22 kW units classified as high-capacity. India had roughly 76,000 cumulative public and captive charging points in 2024, with a combined installed capacity of 1.3 GW, the report said.

To accommodate this surge in EVs, India must significantly expand its charging infrastructure, increasing from 76,000 points in 2024 to between 0.9 million and 2.1 million by 2032, the report said.

The IESA-CES report further highlighted that electric two- and three-wheelers together accounted for over 93% of India’s electric vehicles in 2024. In contrast, electric four-wheelers represented around 6%, while electric buses and trucks comprised less than 1%, as per the report.

Debmalya Sen, president of IESA, said, “To support the projected EV growth, we can anticipate that India’s cumulative installed EV charging points—public and captive—will need to grow nearly 12 to 28 times, from around 76,000 in 2024 to between 0.9 million and 2.1 million by 2032. Installed charging capacity must also scale more than 17 times, rising from 1.3 GW to 23 GW, depending on EV adoption and infrastructure utilization levels.”