Mid-cap IT companies set to outpace larger peers in Q1-OxBig News Network

Companies, including LTIMindtree Ltd, Mphasis Ltd, Coforge Ltd, Persistent Systems Ltd, and Hexaware Technologies Ltd, are expected to report a sequential revenue growth between 0.6% and 9% for the three months ended June, according to at least five brokerages.

In contrast, larger players like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra are expected to grow around 3.5%. Wipro is likely to report up to a 2.5% decline due to weak European demand and subdued client spending. Infosys is expected to outperform its top peers.

Coforge is expected to lead the midcap pack, buoyed by its $120-million annual contract with Sabre Corp., signed in March. Persistent Systems is projected to post 4.1% sequential growth, Kotak Institutional Equities said in a 30 June note.

“We believe that the quarter will be a mixed one, with mid-tier IT services companies reporting strong growth, while large IT companies and ERD (engineering, research and development) names will disappoint,” said Kotak Institutional Equities analysts Kawaljeet Saluja, Sathishkumar S, and Vamshi Krishna.

“Smart deal structuring, share gains and favorable portfolio (low manufacturing exposure) will drive strong growth for mid-tier, with Coforge (+6.4% qoq) and PSYS (+4.1% qoq) leading the way,” said the Kotak analysts. PSYS refers to Persistent Systems.

Mid-caps capitalised on their ability to shape large deals and get higher revenue from banks and financial institutions. “Key reasons for this outperformance of mid-caps vs. large-caps include: 1) the ability to proactively shape large deals and quickly tap into high-growth areas; and 2) a larger revenue share from the BFSI vertical, which seemingly is not as singed by the tariff-led macro friction,” said ICICI Securities analysts Ruchi Mukhija, Aditi Patil, and Seema Nayak, in a note dated 1 July.

Building momentum

Analysts’ optimism in mid-cap tech service providers comes on the back of stronger performance last fiscal year.

Five of the country’s eight mid-caps earning between $1 billion and $5 billion reported double-digit revenue growth last year, led by Coforge, which reported a 31% jump in revenue. This was in contrast to the top five, which reported a growth of 4.3% at best.

Mid-cap companies scored big on deals wins, which eluded their larger peers in FY25. LTIMindtree landed its largest contract with US-based food processing and commodities trading company Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) in May, while Coforge secured the Sabre deal in March.

Leadership stability has further helped the mid-caps shine. CEOs at Coforge, Persistent, and Hexaware have each been in their roles for over five years, having previously worked at larger peers they now outperform. In contrast, TCS, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra have all seen recent leadership changes, with new CEOs serving for less than two years.

Faster integration of GenAI is also giving mid-caps an edge. As reported by Mint on 7 May, these firms are more adept at embedding GenAI into services agile teams and better ability to change their business processes to clients’ needs.

Meanwhile, engineering R&D firms are bracing for a challenging quarter. At least two brokerages expect each of the ER&D firms including L&T Technology Services Ltd, Cyient DET, KPIT Technologies Ltd, Tata Elxsi Ltd, and Tata Technologies Ltd, to report a sequential revenue decline. These companies rely on business from carmakers.

“Auto ER&D are likely to face the brunt of tariff-led pauses,” said JM Financial analysts Abhishek Kumar, Nandan Arekal, and Anushree Rastogi, in a note dated 30 June. The analysts added that these companies reflected “elevated levels of uncertainty in their demand outlook.”

A tariff war sparked by US President Donald Trump has impacted companies and supply chains across sectors. Higher tariffs have made it tougher for companies, including car makers, to source raw materials for their businesses. A double whammy for global carmakers comes from cheaper Chinese vehicles, which are eating their market share.