Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar slumps as trade deals remain stuck | Forexlive

Markets:

• Gold up $89 to $3423
• WTI crude oil up $1.98 to $59.12
• US 10-year yields down 3.7 bps to 4.31%
• S&P 500 down 0.8%
• JPY leads, USD lags

The market is getting increasingly anxious about the lack of US trade deals or even any real parameters about what’s coming. We did get a fresh leak today about the UK but it appears to be limited to autos and steel.

I would highlight two comments that add to the apprehension about the path of the trade war:

• Bessent said they weren’t talking with China
• Trump in his meeting with Carney indicated that the US will dictate trade deals to others

To balance that, Trump talked about the importance of a friendly relationship with Canada so it all wasn’t bad news.

In any case, the US dollar was steadily sold and there was a massive bid in gold, both highlighting mounting worries about the trade war. Some of the dollar weakness could be position squaring ahead of the Fed tomorrow but I don’t see much of a scope for a big dovish shift.

Late in the day, we’re getting some Indian strikes on Pakistan and with one nuclear-armed country shooting at another, that could further add to gold and yen bids.

In terms of market moves, AUD/USD is flirting with 0.6500 for the first time this year as its sharp comeback from the Liberation Day lows continues.

The euro got some bids as Merz made it though on the second vote but it was a fleeting pop, as it as widely expected. The euro did manage to string together a nice gain but it was largely in line with GBP and the overall USD move.