Gains, losses, and politics in Andhra Pradesh-OxBig News Network

Ever since the Union government began discussing the delimitation exercise, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has made it clear that he supports the process, unlike his southern counterparts, led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin.

Supporting the NDA government’s move, Mr. Naidu — who had earlier promoted family planning and spoken about population explosion — said that he has changed his view on population and is now promoting population growth, arguing that India’s biggest advantage over developed nations is its demographic dividend.

He further stated that even South Indian States, including Andhra Pradesh, were also facing the ageing issue, compared to northern States. And that is why he is now promoting population growth.

In the recently concluded Assembly Budget session, Mr. Naidu made it clear that once the delimitation process is completed after the 2026 Census, the share of women in the Assembly would increase to 75 seats as per women’s reservation norms.

After securing a landslide victory in the 2024 General and Assembly elections and forming the NDA coalition government in Andhra Pradesh, Mr. Naidu overturned a three-decade-old rule that disqualified candidates with more than two children from contesting local body polls.

Now the question is whether his support for delimitation will isolate him from the other Southern States. Notably, he did not attend the meeting convened by Mr. Stalin. Mr. Naidu’s absence from the meeting was expected, as his party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), is part of the NDA, along with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party.

Interestingly, Mr. Naidu is aware that if the delimitation process is done after the 2026 Census, Andhra Pradesh’s representation in the Lok Sabha will not increase substantially, unlike States such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. However, he has no other choice.

Not repeating the past

As the leader of the TDP, Mr. Naidu is unlikely to repeat his past mistake of differing or opposing the BJP, as he had done before the 2019 elections. He not only lost the election by walking out of the NDA over the issue of Special Category Status for Andhra Pradesh, but also invited the wrath of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. The coalition deal was inked only days before the 2024 elections, thanks to the efforts of Mr. Kalyan.

It is also worth noting that Mr. Naidu first formed the government in 2014, after Andhra Pradesh’s bifurcation, with the support of the NDA. Now, in 2024, he has become the Chief Minister for the fourth time, again with the same coalition.

On the other hand, former Chief Minister and YSR Congress Party president Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy also did not attend Mr. Stalin’s meeting, despite being invited. However, he had sent a letter to the Prime Minister, emphasising the need to amend the Constitution to give effect to a proportionate increase in the number of Lok Sabha seats for each State. Going by the records, Mr. Jagan had never strongly opposed the NDA on any issue. In fact, he has supported the passage of several contentious Bills. 

Currently, Andhra Pradesh has 25 Lok Sabha seats, and under the proposed delimitation formula, this number is expected to increase to just 28. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh’s representation is set to rise from 80 to 128, and Bihar’s from 40 to 70.

Mr. Naidu has clearly stated that delimitation should not be linked to population management. He has also expressed that the delimitation process should not reduce the number of Lok Sabha seats but instead ensure justifiable distribution.

He also added that Andhra Pradesh followed family planning programmes, which is why there is no significant rise in population compared to northern States such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

While Mr. Shah has stated that no seats will be reduced in the southern States, he has not specified the numbers.

Now, whether delimitation will become a major issue for the Andhra Pradesh government and whether it will find itself in a delicate debate with the Centre in the coming days remains to be seen.

The total increase in seats from the five southern States is expected to be around 16, when compared to about 190 seats from the other States in the Lower House.

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