ICYMI – JPMorgan forecasts US recession in late 2025 as Trump tariffs bite | Forexlive

JPMorgan expects the U.S. economy to slip into recession in the second half of 2025, as the effects of Trump’s tariff policy begin to weigh on growth.

Michael Feroli, the bank’s chief U.S. economist, anticipates a mild two-quarter contraction beginning in the third quarter. JPMorgan projects GDP will

• shrink by 1.0% in Q3
• and by 0.5% in Q4, marking a technical recession.
• For the full year, Feroli’s team sees U.S. economic output declining 0.3%.

“The impact of the renewed tariffs is likely to build over time, tightening financial conditions and dampening business investment,” Feroli said in the bank’s latest outlook.

The forecast comes amid rising concern that protectionist trade measures could disrupt supply chains, raise input costs, and weigh on consumer sentiment — all of which could reverse the momentum that has underpinned U.S. economic resilience in recent quarters.

JPMorgan’s view places it among the more bearish on Wall Street, with other major banks still split on whether the U.S. will manage a soft landing or face a downturn.