India`s Neighbourhood Puzzle: Can Diplomacy Deliver?-OxBig News Network

New Delhi: In a region as volatile and diverse as South Asia, India’s neighbourhood policy has always been a tightrope walk between strategic imperatives and political realities. From festering border tensions with China to fluctuating ties with Pakistan, and from growing concerns in the Maldives to the fragility of democratic institutions in Myanmar, India’s neighbourhood remains a geopolitical Rubik’s cube. The question that looms large: can diplomacy alone resolve the puzzle?

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to power with a leaner coalition, India’s foreign policy, particularly in its immediate neighbourhood, is poised for recalibration. The region surrounding India is no longer a comfortable backyard. It is an active theatre of contestation, where diplomacy must now work overtime to manage old fault lines and new strategic equations.

The past decade saw India assert itself with a confident regional footprint, invoking “Neighbourhood First,” emphasising connectivity, extending vaccine diplomacy, and positioning itself as a net security provider. But recent events underscore a sobering truth: goodwill is fleeting, influence is contested, and proximity alone does not guarantee primacy.

Following the 2024 general elections, foreign policy watchers are closely reading signals of continuity and course correction in India’s regional approach. Will Modi 3.0 reaffirm the assertive posture of the past decade, or recalibrate toward deeper regional consensus-building?

A Shifting South Asian Chessboard

India’s diplomatic balancing act faces immediate tests. Consider the Maldives. In recent months, President Mohamed Muizzu has adopted a sharply nationalist tone, expelling Indian military personnel and fast-tracking Chinese engagements, including a new maritime security pact. While New Delhi has re-engaged with humanitarian aid and infrastructure discussions, the “India Out” rhetoric has gained deeper roots than previously anticipated.

Nepal, too, is testing India’s strategic patience. Recent pacts with China on infrastructure and trade corridors — signed in April — reflect Kathmandu’s balancing strategy. India’s inability to resolve long-standing disputes, such as the Kalapani territorial issue, leaves room for Beijing to expand its influence.

Even Bangladesh, arguably India’s closest and most reliable neighbour, has shown signs of drift. In Bhutan, the shifting ties with China demand subtle and sustained engagement. India’s advantage lies in trust, but that alone will not be enough if economic and technological collaborations are not deepened.

The China Challenge

Perhaps no bilateral relationship underscores the limits of diplomacy more starkly than India’s ties with China. Despite multiple rounds of military and diplomatic talks, the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains tense. Beijing’s expanding footprint — whether in Nepal through infrastructure diplomacy or in Sri Lanka through debt dependency — challenges India’s traditional sphere of influence. Diplomatic dialogue, though essential, must now be coupled with calibrated deterrence and strategic outreach.

Pakistan: Dialogue in Limbo

On the western front, Pakistan remains diplomatically frozen. With Pakistan, diplomacy has repeatedly hit a wall, often sabotaged by cross-border terrorism or domestic political volatility. While Track-II dialogues and backchannel communications have kept some level of contact alive, the core issues remain unresolved. The abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir in 2019 and the incidents after that, including the ‘Pahalgam Attack’, further complicated the equation. In the absence of a shared vision or political will on either side, diplomacy risks being reduced to symbolism.

With Pakistan grappling with internal instability, economic crisis, and a caretaker government struggling to assert legitimacy, India appears to prefer a policy of quiet disengagement. But without dialogue, even a fragile calm can be upended overnight.

Myanmar: Democracy vs. Realpolitik

India’s approach to Myanmar reflects the classic tension between democratic ideals and strategic needs. The 2021 military coup put New Delhi in a difficult position: condemn the junta and risk alienating a critical neighbour on China’s periphery, or engage pragmatically and risk moral compromise. So far, India has tried to maintain a balancing act, offering humanitarian aid while keeping security lines open. But the long-term cost of ignoring democratic aspirations may be high.

Sri Lanka: Friend, but Watch Closely

India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy has shown relative success in Sri Lanka. Still, we need to be more alert to the changing graphs.

Modi 3.0 and the Opportunity for Course Correction

The new government’s foreign policy team will have to juggle continuity with corrections. “Neighbourhood First” must now evolve from political optics to sustained policy. The lesson from recent setbacks is clear: influence cannot be built on summits alone. Nor can it hinge on personal rapport with regional leaders, however charismatic.

What’s needed is a Diplomacy Plus approach — diplomacy backed by developmental assistance, digital collaboration, defence partnerships, and cultural soft power. India’s export of digital public goods (like UPI and Aadhaar architecture), its green energy transition, and its growing economic heft can serve as powerful tools of persuasion — if deployed strategically.

Can Diplomacy Alone Deliver?

Diplomacy must be more than crisis management. It needs to become a daily habit — persistent, humble, and multidimensional. India must pivot toward a “Diplomacy Plus” model: diplomacy plus connectivity, plus commerce, plus civil society engagement.

Diplomacy, by its nature, is slow-burning. It lays the foundation, but real results demand follow-through across sectors. India’s neighbourhood puzzle may not have a single solution, but a multipronged, nuanced approach gives diplomacy a fighting chance. The question is no longer can diplomacy deliver — it’s whether we’re willing to do what it takes to make sure it does.

Rethinking the Diplomatic Toolkit: Three shifts are essential:

First, diplomacy must become more institutional and less reactive. While high-level visits grab headlines, it is the work done between the headlines — through embassies, think tanks, student exchanges, and cultural programs — that cements influence. India must invest more in foreign service capacity and public diplomacy, especially in local languages and media.

Second, infrastructure and connectivity must be pursued with a purpose. Chinese investments are often swift, but debt-laden and opaque. India’s model — slower but more sustainable — must be marketed better, implemented faster, and tied clearly to the prosperity of local populations.

Third, India must listen more. Many smaller neighbours perceive India’s regional posture as paternalistic or indifferent. A shift toward mutual respect, respect for sovereignty, and proactive responsiveness to local concerns could reset regional trust.

Conclusion: The Region is Watching

India’s neighbourhood is not a passive geography — it is a political space constantly shaped by competing interests and rising aspirations. China’s rise, Western engagement, and internal churn in neighbouring states have made this space more dynamic than ever. In this context, diplomacy must not be reduced to damage control; it must become daily, deliberate, and multidimensional.

Modi 3.0 enters office not just with electoral legitimacy, but with the burden of expectations from allies and adversaries alike. The region is watching closely to see whether India will lead with wisdom or with weight.

Diplomacy can indeed deliver — but only if it moves from rhetoric to results.