Cardholder data shows Canadian consumer spending continued to hold up in May | Forexlive

Canadians have had plenty to worry about in Trump’s second term. The 51st State talk touched a nerve and tipped an election, while the tariffs upended confidence in the economy.

Despite that, there has been no sign of slowing consumer spending.

RBC reports — citing its cardholder data — that retail sales rose 0.7% in May, 1.1% ex-autos and 1.2% on core sales. That comes after official advanced data showed a 0.5% rise in April.

Overall spending remained solid in May, but key categories showed signs of cooling compared to April. Discretionary services continued to lead with spending rising 1.2% from April. Essentials followed closely up 1.1%, while discretionary goods posted a more modest gain of 0.5%. Despite the slower momentum, all three categories remained in positive territory, pointing to continued underlying strength in household demand.

I’ve been following this data set for awhile (it’s about 5 years old) and it’s proving to be a great forecaster for Canadian retail sales.

One caveat could be that spending rose on a pull-forward ahead of tariffs, as apparel demand was high. Still, there is no sign of a consumer-led recession in Canada and I think we could see a Canada-US trade deal in the very-near future.