The revised forecast in skipping a rate cut later this month fits with market expectations at least. However, two rate cuts for the remainder of the year is not quite. As things stand, traders are only pricing in ~25 bps worth of rate cuts i.e. just one more by year-end. The ECB has communicated their intentions to pause through the summer but are yet to say anything about September. It’s all on the data and US-EU trade negotiations.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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