Fed’s Barkin: Its going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact. | Forexlive

• It’s going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact.
• Suppliers are emboldened, say they will have to pass on higher prices.
• Consumers are frustrated, exhausted, and tired of paying high prices
• Not convinced higher prices will be passed on, or that there won’t be inflation.
• To cut rates requires confidence on inflation.
• Higher the inflation numbers, the less likely you’ll see that.
• 1970s stagflation was characterized by out of whack inflation expectations. Not seeing that now.
• Data right now is okay there is a risk on the employment side..
• This is not a time for me to say how many rate cuts I have penciled in for this year.
• I am nervous about inflation and about employment.
• I’m in no hurry on rate cuts.
• Let’s wait and see how it plays out, as Fed chair says.
• Balance sheet runoff could be slower, for longer.

Fed Barkin’s overall tone can be described as cautiously hawkish, with a strong emphasis on patience and inflation vigilance.

He expresses clear concern about inflation, noting that suppliers are signaling price increases and that cutting rates would require a “confidence” that inflation is under control. He also ties the likelihood of rate cuts to incoming inflation data—stating that the higher the numbers, the less likely cuts become. His comment that he’s “in no hurry on rate cuts” reinforces this cautious stance.

At the same time, Barkin acknowledges areas of economic softness, such as consumer fatigue and some risk on the employment side. However, he does not let these concerns outweigh his inflation focus. He avoids committing to any specific number of rate cuts and emphasizes uncertainty, saying it will take time to understand the impact of tariffs and that the Fed should wait and see how things evolve.

In short, Barkin is signaling no urgency to cut rates, a need for more clarity on inflation, and a willingness to be patient—all of which suggest a moderately hawkish bias, balanced with a data-dependent, cautious approach.