How have interest rates expectations changed after the US inflation data? | Forexlive

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 45 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 24 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 51 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 16 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 66 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 33 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 11 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 16 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

We got a slightly more hawkish repricing for the Fed following the US CPI report, but after the US PPI data, the market went almost back to the same pricing we had before the inflation releases (47 bps).

The same thing happened with the BoE as the market leant more hawkish following the hot UK CPI figures and then firmed up around two rate cuts by year-end following the relatively soft UK employment data.

The most notable change was with the RBA following the weak Australian employment data today. The market is now sure that the central bank will cut by 25 bps at the upcoming meeting.