NZDUSD bounces up and down as traders await RBNZ rate decision | Forexlive

The NZDUSD has seen choppy price action today, initially rising on the back of the RBA rate decision (no change when a 25 basis point cut was expected) before reversing lower on renewed US dollar buying, briefly turning negative on the day. Over the past few hours, the pair has recovered modestly and is now up 0.08%, hovering near unchanged levels as traders position ahead of the RBNZ rate decision.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25%, after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points from its peak of 5.5%. A majority of NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board members also support holding rates steady, citing mixed inflation signals and global uncertainty. Most expect the monetary easing cycle is nearing its end, with the OCR likely remaining between 2.75% and 3.25% over the coming year. While several members see limited room for further cuts, two still favor more easing to support the domestic economy.

From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart shows the price fell below both its 100- and 200-bar moving averages yesterday. During today’s Asia-Pacific session, the pair briefly reclaimed the 200-bar MA but stalled ahead of the 100-bar MA, currently near 0.6033. Sellers have since pushed the pair lower again, briefly dipping below the 50% retracement of the move up from the May low at 0.5982, with the session low reaching 0.59782.

This range — between the 50% midpoint at 0.5982 and the 100-bar MA at 0.6033 — marks the key technical zone for traders. A break above 0.6033 would shift the bias more bullish, while a move below 0.5982 would invite further downside, targeting the 61.8% retracement at 0.5950, followed by the key swing area between 0.5882 and 0.5893. These levels will guide directional conviction ahead of the RBNZ’s decision, and after it as well.

Right now, the bias is tilted a little to the downside below the MA levels. However, the price does remain closer to the highs going back to October 2024. So buyers and sellers both have to prove themselves. Getting below the 50% gives the sellers even more control. Getting above the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart which showed that the buyers are back in firm control.