The major currencies remain mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report | Forexlive

It’s been a very boring week due to the lack of key economic releases and new developments on the tariffs front. The tariff letters have been largely ignored because they are just the same old negotiating tactic with a deadline attached (that will likely be delayed).

The NFP report last Thursday put the labour market fears and more dovish
bets to rest for the time being as we head into the US CPI next week.
That’s probably going to be the most important release of the month (unless we get data in-line with the expectations).

The vast majority of Fed members want to wait for the data throughout the summer before deciding on when to cut rates. The market of course will keep on speculating on the interest rates path based on the incoming data.

The CPI next week is unlikely to force the Fed to cut at the July meeting. September is the earliest we could see it. Nonetheless, a soft CPI should see the market pricing back in higher chances of a third cut by year-end and weigh on the US dollar.

On the other hand, while a hot CPI might not yet make the market to price out the second cut, it could still dimish the conviction and give the US dollar a boost, especially given the lopsided bearish positioning on the greenback.