- Growth recovers to average around 1.75% over the rest of the decade
- OBR: underlying fiscal outlook has deteriorated since October
if global trade disputes escalate to include 20 pct pt rises in tariffs between the USA and the rest of the world, this could reduce UK GDP by a peak of 1% and reduce current surpluses in the target year to almost zero
- UK finance minister Reeves says to raise extra 1 bln stg by tackling tax evasion
- UK finance minister Reeves says this statement contains no further tax increases
- OBR: Borrowing is projected to be 3.5 billion pounds higher and debt 0.6% of gdp higher at the end of the decade than in our October forecast
- UK’s Reeves: this statement does not contain any further tax increases
- UK’s Reeves: obr forecasts show 2028/29 current budget deficit/surplus of 7.1 bln stg (Oct forecast: 9.3 bln stg surplus)
- OBR forecasts 2029/30 net financial debt 82.7% of GDP (Oct forecast 83.4%)
- OBR forecasts show 2025/26 current budget deficit of 36.1 bln stg (Oct forecast: 26.2 bln stg)
- CPI seen at 3.2% in 2025 vs 2.6% in October
- CPI seen at 2% from 2027 onwards
Gilts have bounced around on these headlines, rising first but a Reuters calculation shows an additional 47.5B in additional borrowing between now and 2029/30 compared to October forecasts.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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