The USD is marginally changed/mixed vs the major currencies. For the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, the pairs are currently trading within 0.16% of unchanged. In fact all the major currencies are within 0.16% of the closing level from yesterday to start the US/North American session.
The trading ranges are also modest with
- EURUSD 39 pips vs 87 pip 22 day average (about a month of trading)
- USDJPY 108 pips vs 147 pip average
- GBPUSD 48 pips vs 79 pip average
- USDCHF 32 pips vs 61 pip average
- USDCAD 31 pips vs 102 pip average
- AUDUSD 22 pips vs 60 pip average
- NZDUSD 19 pips vs 55 pip average
The lack of price action could mean a quiet Friday OR there is room to roam. If there is a break outside a technical level, look for momentum in the direction of the break. If you are biased up or down, look to lean against technical levels. In the video above, I take a look at the 2 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective – and outline the technical levels in play
The economic calendar is light today with Canada retail sales (-0.4% est, last month 2.5%), along with Canada Housing price data (last month -0.1%). EU consumer confidence flash estimate for March will be released at 11 AM with est. at -13.0 vs -13.6 last month.
Chicago Fed Pres. Austan Goolsbee is expected to speak on CNBC this morning.
In Canada yesterday, BOC Tiff Macklem spoke and said and:
Stressed the need for a cautious and flexible policy approach, prioritizing minimizing errors over long-term forecasting. He emphasized that the BOC must act quickly when economic conditions change and reiterated its commitment to controlling inflation, particularly in the face of rising tariff-related price pressures. With significant economic uncertainty, the central bank is focusing less on defining the “best” monetary policy and more on adapting to evolving risks. While Canada has managed a soft landing, Macklem warned that it won’t last indefinitely, especially with U.S. tariffs threatening to lower energy prices and hurt producer profitability. Additionally, he reinforced that there is no question about Canada’s sovereignty and border integrity, underscoring the government’s firm stance amid global trade uncertainties.
He added, the BOC is moving to the sidelines for the time being but may cut aggressively (or hike) as developments on tariffs and the economy unfold. In the meantime, he’s saying not to expect any hints on what’s coming.
In other news:
- Heathrow Airport is closed and will reportedly remain closed until midnight at least due to a fire in a electrical substation supplying the airport. Yikes
- Hamas said it is studying the US peace proposal and the other proposed ideas in order to reach a deal that ensures hostage release. Meanwhile Israel says that a larger Hamas persists in refusal to release the hostages, the more territory it will lose
- German’s Bundesrat passed the debt reform bill and $500 billion euro fund.
- Putin order not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains in force. Ukraine’s attack on Russian gas transit station shows Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy cannot be trusted. Meanwhile the Kyiv Post reports that the strike on the gas transit station was done by Russian forces in order to blame Ukraine. Yikes 2. Closed and
US stocks are lower after an up and down day yesterday, closing lower.
- Dow industrial average -162.24 point points. Yesterday, the index fell -11.31 points or -0.03.
- S&P index -22.05 points.The S&P index fell -12.40 points or -0.22% yesterday.
- NASDAQ index -91 points. The NASDAQ index fell -59.16 points or -0.33% yesterday
In the European equity markets, major indices fell:
- German DAX: -0.68%
- France CAC 40: -0.63%
- UK FTSE 100: -0.48%
- Spain IBEX 35: unchanged
- Italy FTSE MIB: -0.42%
In the US debt market, the yields are lower:
- 2-year yield 3.937%, -2.0 basis points.
- 5-year yield 3.91%, -2.5 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.211%, -2.1 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.538%, -1 point basis points
Looking at other markets:
- Crude oil down $0.38 and $67.70
- Gold is trading down $-9.67 or -0.32% at $3034.75.
- Silver is trading down $0.36 or -1.07% at $33.17.
- Bitcoin is trading near unchanged at $84,044
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