US 3-Year Note Auction on Deck at 1PM ET | Forexlive

The Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes at 1:00 PM ET, launching this week’s coupon supply calendar. Results will be closely watched, with investor demand measured against the 5-key component 6 month auction averages.

Metrics to watch vs 6-auction avg:

• Tail: 6- month avg. 0.5bps. The difference between the high yield and the when-issued yield (pre-auction market rate. A negative tail is indication of strong bidding. A positive tail implies less demand

• Bid-to-Cover: 6-month avg. 2.62x. Total bids received divided by the amount of debt offered. A higher number is an indication of strong demand

• Dealer Take: 6-month avg. 15.1%.Primary dealers (big banks) who are obligated to bid at Treasury auctions. If the banks take more than the average, it indicates less investor demand.

• Directs: 6-month avg. 18.7%. Domestic US buyers placing bids on their own behalf (e.g., corporations, pension funds, insurance companies). A higher number is indicative of strong domestic demand, while a lower number is weaker demand. .

• Indirects: 6-month avg. 66.2%.Often seen as foreign central banks and international institutions.A higher number is indicative of strong domestic demand, while a lower number is weaker demand.

More ahead:

The auction’s strength—or lack thereof—could influence rate direction and market sentiment heading into the rest of the week’s supply.