USDCHF Technical Analysis – No real changes from SNB and FOMC | Forexlive

The Fed yesterday delivered
on expectations by holding rates steady and keeping the dot plot on two rate
cuts for 2025. Fed Chair Powell didn’t offer anything in terms of forward
guidance as the uncertainty continues to favour a wait-and-see approach. The USD
strengthened a bit following the announcement, but it had more to do with noise
rather than signal. The Fed decision was overall a non-event.

The market continues to price
in two rate cuts in 2025, but the path of least resistance favours more rate
cuts. Therefore, the greenback will need stronger data to trigger a more
hawkish repricing and get a boost.

On the CHF side, the SNB today cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected and brough the policy rate to 0.00%. The central bank continues to sound reluctant to push rates into negative territory but it’s willing to do so if conditions require such a move. The market expects the SNB to cut again by the end of the year bringing the policy rate to -0.25%.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the price recently bounced from the April lows in what could end up being a double bottom. The neckline stands around the 0.8475 level and the buyers will look for dip-buying opportunities on the lower timeframes to keep pushing into that target. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the 0.8038 level to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop back into the 0.8038 level. If the price breaks below the trendline, the buyers will have another dip-buying opportunity around the 0.8145 zone.