USDJPY Technical Analysis – Focus on the “Liberation Day” | Forexlive

Fundamental
Overview

The USD got a bit of a
boost on Monday following the better than expected US
PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids in
the greenback yesterday following the weak US
Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet another
high.

Overall, the market is
still pricing between two to three rate cuts this year and the sentiment
remains tentative as we approach the Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2^nd.

On the JPY side, we haven’t
seen much change in the domestic fundamentals with governor
Ueda today repeating the same old comments. The market is still pricing
around 36 bps of tightening by year-end with particular focus on inflation data
and the unveiling of the US tariffs plan next Wednesday.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY broke above the major trendline this week. This is where we
can expect the buyers to pile in to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle
next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back
below the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and start targeting new
lows.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline now defining the bullish momentum on this
timeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break below the trendline to regain control and pile in for a drop into
the 140.00 handle next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as there’s no clear level where buyers or sellers
can lean onto except the trendline around the 149.50 level. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI and the US PCE
report.

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