Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 48 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 23 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 58 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 21 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 56 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 33 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 9 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
We haven’t seen much change in the past days as traders await the US CPI data. The NFP took the market back to the reality and two rate cuts became once again the base case.
The CPI might influence the expectations once again but we will likely need lower or higher than expected figures. Data in line with expectations shouldn’t change the pricing much.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
#interest #rates #expectations #ahead #CPI #Forexlive
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