What are the main events for today? | Forexlive

In the European session, the main highlight was the release of the UK GDP. The data disappointed and dragged the GBP lower. Looking ahead, we don’t have much else on the agenda other than a lot of ECB speakers.

In the American session, the focus will turn to the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims data. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs 3.1% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs -0.4% prior. Yesterday, the US CPI came in lower than expected and weighed on the dollar. A soft PPI could keep the trend going.

The US Jobless
Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial
Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to slowly drift higher.

Note also that claims generally rise in the summer for seasonal factors. So, we will likely need a spike above the 260K level to trigger some real fear about the labour market conditions. Initial Claims are expected at 240K vs 247K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1910K vs 1904K prior.

We also have a 30yr Treasury auction late in the afternoon for those following them. If we get a soft PPI, we can expect a good auction.

Central bank speakers:

• 07:00 GMT/03:00 ET – ECB’s Muller (neutral – non voter in July)
• 07:00 GMT/03:00 ET – ECB’s Simkus (dove – voter)
• 07:00 GMT/03:00 ET – ECB’s Escriva (dove – voter)
• 07:15 GMT/03:15 ET – ECB’s Knot (neutral – voter)
• 07:20 GMT/03:20 ET – RBA’s Jacobs (neutral – voter)
• 07:30 GMT/03:30 ET – ECB’s Panetta (dove – voter)
• 09:00 GMT/05:00 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (neutral – voter)
• 09:00 GMT/05:00 ET – ECB’s Patsalides (dove – voter)
• 12:00 GMT/08:00 ET – ECB’s de Guindos (neutral – voter)
• 12:20 GMT/08:20 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (neutral – voter)
• 15:15 GMT/11:15 ET – ECB’s Elderson (neutral – voter)