In the European session, the only notable event was the release of the UK CPI report. The data came mostly in line with expectations, so it shouldn’t change much in terms of market pricing. Looking ahead, there’s not much else on the agenda other than the final Eurozone CPI reading and a couple of ECB speakers.
In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims figures getting released today due to the Juneteenth holiday tomorrow. The consensus sees 245K vs 248K prior for Initial Claims and 1932K vs 1956K prior for Continuing Claims. Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022 but Continuing Claims last week jumped to a new cycle high.
There are a few caveats here. The first one is that claims tend to rise in the summer and the second one is that the recent Continuing Claims rise is most likely due to workers having difficulty finding a job given the economic uncertainty rather than increased layoffs.
Later in the day, we have also the FOMC decision where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady and keep a wait-and-see mode throughout the summer to gather more information on the impact of the recent government policies and economic developments. The Fed will also release the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) where two rate cuts for 2025 are expected to remain the base case.
Finally, keep an eye on the Israel-Iran conflict. The market was already looking past this but things changed when yesterday the probabilities for direct US involvement rose and traders were fearing some kind of attack in the Asian session that eventually didn’t happen. Nevertheless, it’s said that the next 24/48 hours will be key.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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