What are the main events for today? | Forexlive

In the European session, we have the SNB and BoE releasing their policy decisions. The SNB is expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate to 0.00%. The market is also pricing a 25% chance of a 50 bps cut, but based on the members’ comments, the central bank will keep the door open for negative rates but reaffirm that it’s not their preferred policy.

The BoE is expected to keep the bank rate unchanged at 4.25% with a 7/9 vote split. The central bank will likely highlight the weakness in the recent data and that their base case of cutting once a quarter gives them flexibility while preserving the inflation progress.

Both will likely be non-events much like the Fed yesterday given that pretty much everything is already priced in and we are just waiting for more data and new macro developments throughout the summer. Nonetheless, it’s always good to watch out for potential surprises as that’s when the market moves the most.

In the American session, we don’t have anything on the agenda due to the US holiday. But throughout the day, traders will keep an eye on Middle East news as a US strike against Iran is still seen as a possibility. We got some positive headlines yesterday on potential de-escalation, but there are so many things happening at once that it’s hard to have faith in a quick diplomatic resolution.

For the markets, a direct US intervention is seen as a risk because the geopolitical risk premium would climb further and oil supply disruption could be the only card that Iran could play. As long as the conflict doesn’t impact key macro drivers like oil prices, it will remain confined to the Middle East.