Agra’s Taj Mahal regained its crown, however let’s not child ourselves

Domestic travellers had quietly taken over an area that, not too way back, was firmly worldwide.

So, the place have all of the foreigners gone?

On paper, India’s inbound tourism has recovered. India noticed 18.89 million worldwide vacationer arrivals on the finish of 2023, simply crossing the pre-pandemic degree of 17.91 million recorded in 2019—international vacationer arrivals had lastly edged previous pre-pandemic ranges. But a more in-depth have a look at the numbers exhibits that non-resident Indians (NRIs) made up an enormous chunk of the arrivals. And arrivals from Bangladesh, many for medical care, made up one other massive chunk earlier than political occasions in that nation thinned these. In 2024, 9.66 million international vacationers (excluding NRIs) arrived, provisional knowledge from the federal government exhibits. This quantity is decrease than the arrivals recorded between 2017 and 2019 (see chart).

Beneath the floor, the rebound within the sector, one which contributes international trade with no need commerce offers, transport routes, or heavy infrastructure, has been slower than anticipated. Many within the trade say what’s lacking is momentum—and imaginative and prescient. With worldwide footfalls nonetheless subdued at marquee locations, and abroad advertising and marketing efforts just about absent, the query isn’t simply how far India has come, however how a lot additional it might have gone.

India has all the time been recognized to get a big a part of its inbound journey from both low-budget worldwide travellers or severe spenders from the US and UK of their 50s and 60s. While the previous have returned to some extent and a wave of NRIs can be coming for holidays right here, the pure play worldwide vacationer stays absent. A have a look at the outcomes of any resort firm reveal that none of them depend on worldwide leisure journey and tourism right this moment. The lack of worldwide travellers isn’t being felt totally by hoteliers because the hole is being stuffed by home travellers. But is that sufficient?

Puneet Chhatwal, managing director and chief government officer (CEO) of Indian Hotels Company Limited, which operates the Taj group, pointed to the shortfall through the firm’s third quarter earnings name. “We are nonetheless at a decrease finish on the pre-covid. Normally, it must be at the least 120% of the pre-covid degree by now… in 2024–25, international vacationer arrivals in India are nonetheless 10–15% under pre-covid ranges,” he mentioned.

Chhatwal added that even the present arrivals will not be essentially pure play worldwide vacationers. “So, loads of these arrivals are thought-about international vacationer arrivals, however they’re not the actual international vacationers (that means: NRIs make up a very good chunk),” Chhatwal added.

Vikramjit Oberoi, managing director and CEO of EIH, which runs the Oberoi chain, raised an analogous concern. “Foreign journey in plenty of leisure places has nonetheless not reached pre-pandemic ranges,” he mentioned, through the firm’s third quarter earnings name.

Deceptive numbers

The gradual progress in international guests is mirrored in a broader development throughout a number of Archaeological Survey of India (ASI)-ticketed monuments in India, the place worldwide arrivals stay under previous highs. Most high monuments noticed contrasting worldwide versus home footfalls in 2023–24 (post-covid) versus 2019–20 (pre-covid), based mostly on accessible knowledge. The notable exception was the Taj Mahal, which regained its crown and drew extra international vacationers than it did in 2019, with worldwide footfalls rising from 6,45,000 in 2019–20 to six,81,000.

Agra Fort, as an illustration, is but to return to its pre-pandemic recognition amongst worldwide travellers, slipping from 3,87,000 to 2,18,000 in the identical interval. Compared to 2022-23, nonetheless, footfalls registered a rise.

The story was no totally different for the Qutub Minar in Delhi, which confirmed an analogous downward development, with worldwide guests dipping to 2,20,000 in 2023–24 from 2,55,000 in 2019–20. Domestic footfalls remained sturdy at over 20,00,000 in each years.

Humayun’s Tomb and Fatehpur Sikri noticed equal if not slower rebounds amongst international vacationers, regardless of constant visibility within the Delhi-Agra journey circuit. The story goes on with the highest ten monuments.

The progress in inbound tourism has been largely pushed by the Indian diaspora—NRI arrivals jumped over 34% in comparison with 2019 and made up 26% of whole arrivals in 2023. On the financial entrance, international trade earnings from tourism rose 31.5% to $28.08 billion, mentioned the ministry of tourism’s most up-to-date knowledge, which captured numbers from 2023.

While general worldwide vacationer arrivals (together with NRIs) reached a file 18.89 million in 2023, international vacationer arrivals, 13% under their 2019 degree, inform a extra sobering story. It signifies that India is but to totally win again worldwide leisure and enterprise travellers.

A better have a look at the regional unfold of international vacationer arrivals in 2023 reveals a closely concentrated supply base. South Asia dominated, accounting for 29.02% of all international vacationer arrivals, adopted by North America at 21.82% and Western Europe at 20.40%. The remainder of the world contributed far much less.

The numbers additionally underline a long-standing imbalance: Bangladesh alone contributed over 2.1 million arrivals in 2023, although in 2024, its numbers fell to 1.70 million, making it the second largest supply market after the US.

Meanwhile, the current terrorist incident in Pahalgam, Kashmir, is unlikely to considerably influence India’s inbound journey trade, because the area has not sometimes been a significant vacation spot for worldwide vacationers. According to the newest knowledge from the ministry of tourism, Kashmir noticed 18.5 million home vacationer visits in 2022 and 20.6 million in 2023—nicely above the 16 million recorded in 2020. In distinction, worldwide arrivals remained restricted, rising from about 20,000 in 2022 to 50,000 in 2023.

Behind the neighbourhood

India nonetheless trails many international locations, each when it comes to footfalls and earnings. In Southeast Asia, most nations have been luring worldwide travellers with free or low cost visas, ease of entry and higher bang-for-your-buck resort rooms. Indian travellers proceed to drive monument site visitors outdoors the nation in giant numbers with a considerable quantity leaving the exchequer.

Growth in home journey, which continues to be India’s tourism engine, is robust. The nation recorded a staggering 2.5 billion home vacationer visits in 2023—a forty five% soar from 2022.

Rajeev Kohli, who runs a high-end boutique journey company in Gurugram centered on bringing worldwide travellers to India, mentioned the trade is “not making sense”. He cautioned in opposition to drawing consolation from claims that tourism is booming. “Yes, some elements are doing nicely. But inbound tourism is in free fall,” he mentioned.

While motels are exhibiting working income, the development will not be uniform throughout the nation. “Aviation is making loads of noise, but just one airline is worthwhile. Railways are struggling to fulfill business targets with their luxurious trains. Transport operators are weighed down by previous debt. The listing goes on,” mentioned Kohli.

He argued that tourism shouldn’t be measured solely by the variety of travellers however by inspecting the structural weaknesses that few are prepared to acknowledge.

Where are the advertisements?

Part of the issue, in keeping with different trade insiders, stems from selections made through the pandemic. In 2022, the federal government shut down seven abroad tourism workplaces in main hubs comparable to London, Tokyo, Beijing, and Dubai, and others the place India would typically participate in commerce delegations.

The closures have had a ripple impact, mentioned Subhash Goyal, chairperson of Delhi-based STIC Travel Group. He identified that the trade had beneficial appointing personal advertising and marketing companies to signify India overseas if any workplaces had been to be closed however “sadly, this was not accomplished”.

The Incredible India marketing campaign was very profitable from 2002 to round 2019. After the pandemic, it has not been revived. Currently, there’s barely any offline advertising and marketing and really restricted digital or social media outreach by the federal government,” mentioned Goyal.

In the Union Budget introduced this February, the allocation was a measly ₹3.07 crore for FY26, a drop of 91% from the 12 months in the past. This set off alarm bells throughout the sector.

Tourism might negate tariffs

Inbound tourism is among the few sectors that may herald giant quantities of international trade with out dealing with commerce limitations, consultants say. Since vacationer spending isn’t topic to tariffs or retaliatory duties, it offers India a singular export that’s decentralised and largely unaffected by international politics.

“It’s the most effective defences now we have in opposition to issues like tariff wars,” mentioned Dipak Deva, managing director and CEO of Travel Corporation India Ltd, which brings worldwide vacationer teams to India. “Instead of focusing solely on commerce deficits from manufactured items, we will have a look at how our service sector will help offset that hole. Every greenback a vacationer spends—on motels, flights, guides, native crafts, or meals—instantly provides to our international trade. There’s no want for transport containers, commerce offers, or port clearances. All it must develop sooner is severe coverage help.”

Deva is assured that if bottlenecks are mounted, the nation might see the sector contributing $50 billion by FY27-28 from the $30 million or so in 2019. This foreign exchange simply entails coverage imaginative and prescient and execution, he mentioned.

“We have the perfect tourism product on the planet—it’s simply that not sufficient folks find out about it. The authorities ought to spend at the least ₹1,000 crore to promote it successfully utilizing social media,” he added.

We have the perfect tourism product on the planet—it’s simply that not sufficient folks find out about it.
—Dipak Deva

Creative Travel’s Kohli underlined that when enterprise is down, advertising and marketing wants to extend, not scale back. “There is just no demand for India. It’s a shopper enterprise. Why do Apple and Samsung promote a lot? It’s economics 101,” he mentioned, noting that travellers are going wherever there are promotions, presents and decisions.

It will not be as if the tourism ministry is in denial of those imperatives. Addressing the not too long ago concluded Skift India Forum in March, Mughdha Sinha, director basic, tourism, Government of India, mentioned, “Inbound journey is vital as a result of any outlier occasion could make you go ‘kaput’. Though advertising and marketing (of the nation) is vital, now we have limitations. [But] Whatever…limitations now we have right this moment, we are going to carry the story of India and make it viral by means of no matter means now we have.”

Representatives from the ministry of tourism didn’t reply to Mint’s detailed questionnaire looking for clarifications.