Mint Explainer: How big is the weight-loss drug market in India | Mint

It’s not just for the celebrities anymore. The ‘miracle’ weight loss drug race has arrived in India with the launch of American drugmaker Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro last week.

Priced at ₹17,500 monthly for a 5mg dose, the drug has an early-mover advantage. But it’s just the start. In the coming year, India will see launches from competitors, including generics priced 90-95% lower than this.

Weight loss treatments are set to change drastically with the introduction of these blockbuster medicines.

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“For clinically severe obesity, so far surgery was the only option (for clinically obese),” Dr Muffazal Lakdawala, bariatric surgeon and expert in obesity management, told Mint. “We were treating less than 0.1% of the people who were eligible…99.9% of the people were still not getting treated for their obesity and we were not recognizing obesity as a disease.”

What are these ‘miracle’ weight-loss drugs?

Mounjaro, an injectable drug used to treat type-2 diabetes and obesity, was launched in India last week. Chemically known as Tirzepatide, it belongs to a class of drugs known as GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonists, which mimic the GLP-1 hormone to promote a feeling of fullness and regulate blood sugar.

Originally developed to treat type-2 diabetes, GLP-1 drugs showed significant potential to treat weight loss and were approved to target obesity specifically. In the last few years, they have taken the world by storm, with demand continuing to outpace supply.

India already has some oral weight loss drugs in the market, but there has been a lag in pick-up as they aren’t as effective. Industry experts believe injectables such as Mounjaro and Ozempic will be widely adopted.

Mounjaro, for instance, leads to an average 21.8 kg weight reduction at the highest dose (15 mg) and 15.4 kg weight loss at the lowest dose (5 mg) over a period of 72 weeks.

While Lilly’s Mounjaro is the first of its kind, it’s not the only one. Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk’s injectable semaglutide – sold under brand names Ozempic and Wegovy –may also be launched in India sometime this year. The innovator hasn’t clarified a timeline yet but must race to bring it to India as the drug goes off-patent in the country early next year.

Indian generics makers Cipla Ltd., Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd, Lupin Ltd, Natco Pharma Ltd, Mankind Pharma Ltd, and Biocon Ltd are gearing up to launch copies of semaglutide in the market. Meanwhile, India’s largest drugmaker Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd is working on its own GLP-1 drug.

Globally, the GLP-1 market is expected to grow to $100 billion by 2030.

How big is the Indian market?

India already has a few oral weight loss drugs, like Orlistat, and GLP-1s such as liraglutide and semaglutide, in the market. Novo Nordisk launched its oral semaglutide tablet Rybelsus in 2022.

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According to data from B2B pharma e-commerce platform Pharmarack, the market for these drugs is valued at ₹576 crore as of February 2025. It has almost quadrupled in the past five years, expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 44% by value and 23% by volumes, according to the platform.

However, the pickup in oral weight loss drugs has been slow and injectable GLP-1s are expected to do much better.

Affluent patients in India have already been using drugs like Mounjaro and Ozempic, procuring them from overseas through grey market channels. This market reportedly doubled in size to $3.6 billion in 2024 for patients with diabetes, according to a July 2024 report in the British Medical Journal.

Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro is priced at ₹3,500 for a 2.5 mg vial and ₹4,375 for the 5 mg vial. The injectable, to be taken once a week, would cost patients between ₹14,000 to ₹17,500 monthly.

At this price, the penetration of the drug may be low. Still, according to Vishal Manchanda, senior vice-president, institutional research at Systematix Group, it is estimated that if 0.5% of diabetics in India were to take the medicine, it would still lead to $1.5 billion annual sales for Eli Lilly.

With semaglutide going off patent and generics players coming in 2026, the market could expand tremendously.

“[Eli Lilly’s] first-mover advantage will not be very relevant because after a year, we will have semaglutide generics in the market, and those will be priced almost 95% lower,” Manchanda told Mint.

That’s when the volumes will actually pick up, he said. “If 3 to 4% diabetes patients take this drug, this would be about ₹8,000 crore market in India, but at 90% lower than the current price point.”

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There are about 101 million diabetics in the country and at least 40 million are on medication.

Who can take them?

These drugs are meant for clinically obese people with and without type-2 diabetes and can be prescribed by endocrinologists and physicians with the doctor of medicine (MD) qualification.

“[For] body mass index (BMI) above 37 or 40, the only real solution was bariatric surgery…for those who are reluctant to opt for surgery, this [medication] becomes a solution,” Dr. Lakdawala said. “It would replace a lot of the market for insulin, which would grow potentially because this drug would potentially obviate the need for insulin in a lot of the obese diabetic patients,” he said.

Mounjaro is indicated to be used for weight management in adults with an initial body mass index (BMI) of 30 or greater or 27 and more in the presence of at least one weight-related comorbid condition.

As of 2023, the prevalence of adult obesity in India stood at 6.5%, affecting nearly 100 million people. This number is projected to grow as lifestyle shifts are expected to increase the prevalence of obesity.

“Weight is the mother of all non-communicable diseases (NCDs),” diabetologist Dr. Rajiv Kovil pointed out. At least 50% of the diabetics in the country are overweight, he said.

Initially, the uptake of weight-loss drugs among people with type-2 diabetes is expected to be higher, given that they are more likely to seek treatment.

Obesity is still not viewed as a disease. However, doctors believe that the introduction of these drugs and the noise around it will lead to higher awareness and wider adoption.

“For the first time, this discussion around obesity as a disease has started…,” said Dr. Lakdawala. “For me, that’s the most exciting part around these drugs coming into the market.”

What are the side-effects?

Common side-effects of GLP-1 drugs include nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and, in rare instances, pancreatitis. These drugs have only been in large-scale public use for about five to six years, and it would take about 10 years for real data on the side-effects to emerge, doctors say.

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A key concern at the moment is that most people regain the weight they lost once they stop the dosage. Muscle breakdown, or sarcopenia, is another worry and medical practitioners must ensure that the patient is supplementing enough protein to prevent it, Dr. Lakdawala said.