Young Indians are getting addicted to ‘opinion trading’, and losing huge sums

During the 2024 IPL season, Vikas lost ₹3,000 in a cricket match. He tried to recover the money by betting more, only to lose again. Desperate, he began following Telegram groups that promised expert predictions and placed a ₹6,000 bet on MPL Opinio, speculating on cryptocurrency prices. The trade failed and his losses spiralled to nearly ₹18,000, of which he had borrowed ₹8,000 from a friend.

“That friend was also frequently using opinion trading platforms,” said Vikas. “When I couldn’t pay him back in time, I realized that I was in trouble.” With his parents’ help, Vikas repaid the loan and deleted the apps from his phone.

Opinion trading apps such as Probo, MPL Opinio, Big Cash, and Playerzpot, among others, allow users to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from cricket matches and stock movements to political results and cryptocurrency prices. Unlike the traditional financial markets, these platforms use a binary prediction model, where users wager money on ‘yes’ or ‘no’ outcomes, making them more akin to gambling than skill-based investing.

The apps have grown exponentially in recent years, engaging over 50 million Indian users and registering over ₹50,000 crore in transaction volumes annually, with revenues projected to touch around ₹1,000 crore for 2024-25, according to consumer watchdogs and trader lobby the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).

Opinion trading apps have experienced significant growth in India, owing to their aggressive marketing strategies and seamless integration with digital payment systems. A quick search on YouTube mentioning any of these apps yields hundreds of results, with popular YouTubers such as Elvish Yadav promoting these platforms. A ‘Probo Predictions’ group on Telegram has over 53,000 subscribers.

The experience of trading on these platforms is varied. Priyal, 29, a software engineer based in Bengaluru, argues that while these platforms can be addictive, they cannot be completely classified as chance-based because it requires some level of skill to answer the questions while playing. “In a cricket match, for example, you have to account for run rate, bowler and batsman—these details to some degree can indicate an outcome,” he added.

Yes or no?

“Will India’s stock market close higher today?” “Will Virat Kohli score more than 50 runs in the next match?” “Will PM Modi be re-elected?

These are the kinds of binary prediction-based questions that users engage with on opinion trading apps. The process begins with users selecting a question and placing a bet on a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ option, with odds fluctuating based on demand.

As more users place bets, the payout for each option shifts dynamically, creating a sense of market movement. Unlike traditional gambling, these platforms often allow users to exit before the final result, enabling them to “trade” their positions and either lock in profits or cut losses, much like financial markets.

Once the real-world event ends, the winners are determined and payouts are distributed accordingly, while those who made incorrect predictions lose their staked amount.

The platform itself profits by taking a commission or platform fee on every trade. In FY24, Probo’s platform fees from contest participation accounted for 2.23% of its revenue, according to its financial records.

While the interface is designed to appear intuitive and engaging, the fast-paced nature of these bets, alongside the illusion of control and strategic decision-making, often results in repeated plays, making the experience highly addictive for many users.

Features like live price changes, exit options before the final result and terms like “Auto Profit” and “Stop Loss” simulate a trading experience, allowing users to manage risk and make decisions based on market movements.

Some platforms also offer leaderboards, referral bonuses and in-app statistics to engage users further. The real-time nature of these features creates a sense of urgency and competition, making the experience more interactive.

Priyal points out that quick results, especially in events like cricket matches, and the illusion of being in control are factors that make these platforms addictive.

Apart from the comparison with gambling, these platforms have also been in trouble because of underage users accessing them, including a case where a 14-year-old lost a significant sum through opinion trading.

To promote responsible gaming, a Probo spokesperson claimed the company has user spending limits, time restrictions and cool-offs and follows robust KYC procedures. “These checks are designed to protect users and ensure responsible engagement with our platform,” the spokesperson said, in response to an email questionnaire from Mint.

Probo’s leading investor, Peak XV Partners, formerly Sequoia, declined to comment. Elevation Capital, another major investor, did not respond to Mint’s queries on the regulatory pushback.

A representative of SportsBaazi argued that sports trading is fundamentally different from gambling as it relies on knowledge, research and strategic decision-making rather than pure chance as it involves evaluating aggregated results based on real-world data and analysis. “Sports trading requires participants to assess trends, interpret data, and make informed decisions,” he told Mint.

A spokesperson for MPL Opinio also claimed that it prioritizes responsible gaming by offering tools to track gameplay, set deposit limits and receive activity reminders, with options for players to set time limits, take breaks and stay in control.

Mint also reached out to Playerzpot and Big Cash but is yet to receive a response so far.

Play Store rulings

Despite their popularity, opinion trading apps cannot be found on the Google Play Store. Users download the apps via an external link provided on the platform’s website. These apps are also available on Apple’s App Store.

“This discrepancy stems from differing policy interpretations of Indian laws by Google and Apple. While both platforms operate under the same legal framework, their policies on real-money gaming apps vary significantly,” the Probo spokesperson said. “As a result, the entire industry is facing challenges with Google’s restrictions.”

The Google Play Store’s policies regarding real-money gaming (RMG) apps in India have undergone significant changes in recent years. Initially, Google prohibited the listing of RMG apps, including those offering skill-based games, despite their recognition as legitimate business activities under Indian law.

In September 2022, Google initiated a pilot programme allowing daily fantasy sports (DFS) and rummy apps on its platform. Based on the positive feedback from this pilot, in January 2024, Google announced plans to expand support to more RMG apps, including those not covered by existing licencing frameworks, starting July 2024.

However, by June 2024, Google paused this expansion, citing challenges in markets lacking central licencing frameworks.

Despite their popularity, opinion trading apps cannot be found on the Google Play Store. Users download the apps via an external link provided on the platform’s website.

In November 2024, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) launched an investigation into Google’s gaming app policy following complaints from platforms such as WinZO alleging discriminatory practices favouring certain game categories over others.

As a result, the current status of RMG apps on the Google Play Store in India remains uncertain, with ongoing regulatory scrutiny and policy evaluations.

Free-to-play versions of apps like SportsBaazi and MPL Opinio, where a user can play without investing real money, are still available for download on the Play Store.

Chance or skill?

India’s legal framework for betting and gambling distinguishes between games of skill, which are permitted, and games of chance, which are prohibited.

For context, fantasy sports apps like Dream11, which require users to build virtual teams based on real-life players and earn points based on their actual performance in a match, fall under the category of skill-based games.

In 2019, in response to a public interest litigation filed against Dream11, alleging illegal operation of gambling in the guise of online fantasy sports gaming, the Bombay High Court ruled in favour of Dream11, declaring that games played on its platform amount to games of skill and not chance.

Opinion trading platforms also position themselves as skill-based games, trading platforms or investment opportunities, a claim that is now being questioned by consumer advocacy groups.

A spokesperson for MPL, one of India’s largest mobile gaming companies with over 50 games, clarified that every one of its games, including MPL Opinio, goes through rigorous evaluation to meet the industry’s skill-based standards.

“Independent experts, law firms and former judges have confirmed that, like fantasy cricket, opinion trading relies on key skills such as strategic decision-making, in-depth analysis and effective risk management,” the spokesperson said in an emailed response.

According to the financial records of Galactus Funware, parent of MPL Opinio and a wide array of other mobile games, the company generated revenue of ₹879.5 cr in FY24 as compared to ₹814.3 cr in FY23.

The company, in its financial records, also declared that the RMG segment has emerged as a major revenue driver, accounting for 83-84% of total revenue.

Legal challenge

Abhishek Kumar, convenor of the New Indian Consumer Initiative (NICI), has questioned the claim that opinion trading platforms are skill-based. “For an activity to qualify as skill-based, it must allow users to apply experience and strategy. The binary nature of choices and the unpredictability of outcomes on these platforms raise questions about whether skill or chance plays a predominant role,” Kumar said.

On 21 February, the Supreme Court issued notices to the central and Gujarat governments, along with Probo and MPL Opinio, in response to a petition by activist Sumit Kapurbhai Prajapati challenging the Gujarat High Court’s rejection of his plea to ban opinion trading platforms.

In his petition, reviewed by Mint, Prajapati argues that opinion trading apps like MPL Opinio and Probo are essentially gambling platforms disguised as entertainment. He claims these apps are “games of chance”, where outcomes rely on external events rather than skill, which lures users into real-time betting without cognitive effort, resulting in addictive behaviour. This, according to Prajapati’s petition, contradicts the platform’s claims of being skill-based.

Prajapati also raises concerns about inadequate age verification, alleging that while MPL requires users to be 18+, it only verifies identity when cashing out, not during registration. He claims to have seen children compulsively betting and found YouTube videos promising guaranteed profits with zero risk.

The Gujarat High Court had dismissed Prajapati’s petition on 3 January, advising him to approach the Bombay High Court, which is already hearing a similar case with nationwide implications. Prajapati’s counsel argued that Gujarat and Maharashtra have different gaming laws, warranting a separate hearing.

On 21 March, the Supreme Court reinstated Prajapati’s petition. It directed the Gujarat High Court to hear the matter on 14 April, 2025.

Meanwhile, in February, the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) urged the Indian government to ban such platforms, calling them “digital satta” and warning of their potential impact on democratic processes.

Last month, NICI and a coalition of leading consumer interest organizations submitted a joint representation to various central ministries, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) and Parliamentary Standing Committee on Consumer Affairs, on prohibiting opinion trading platforms in India.

According to the representation, these platforms offer pure-play betting activities that mislead consumers through deceptive advertising, luring them to indulge in illegal and unauthorized activity and exposing them to financial and psychological risks.

Responding to these claims, a Probo spokesperson clarified that like all Indian gaming companies, Probo adheres to ASCI advertising standards to ensure responsible gaming practices.

“By offering a transparent, knowledge-driven trading experience, Probo empowers users to make informed decisions based on real-time market insights and their expertise,” the Probo spokesperson said, adding that the platform allows users to engage in a dynamic and interactive environment that mirrors the excitement and strategy often found in traditional gaming.

This, according to NICI’s Kumar, is a practice adopted by opinion trading apps to mimic stock trading platforms in look, feel and terminology. An important distinction here is that globally, similar prediction markets often fall under tight regulations and are subject to oversight, whereas platforms for opinion trading lack a regulatory body to safeguard investor interests.

“Certain jurisdictions regulate these as derivatives or financial instruments, but in India, such platforms are not currently subject to Sebi’s investment protection guidelines, leading to ambiguity in their classification,” Kumar said.

Certain jurisdictions regulate opinion trading as derivatives or financial instruments.
— Abhishek Kumar

Besides the lack of regulations, consumer protection concerns have also been raised, particularly regarding financial losses and the way these platforms are marketed.

“A large number of users appear to be incurring financial losses, while advertisements often focus on potential winnings. The role of advertising, particularly influencer and celebrity endorsements, is an important aspect that requires closer scrutiny,” said Kumar.

In response to concerns around online gambling and betting, multiple government bodies, including the ministry of consumer affairs, the ministry of information and broadcasting and the ministry of electronics and IT, have issued advisories cautioning against misleading advertisements. Mint wrote to the ministry of consumer affairs and the ministry of information & broadcasting seeking comments but did not receive a response.

The future of opinion trading apps largely depends on legal interpretations and enforcement. For now, real money gaming remains a booming yet unregulated industry in India, fuelled by users drawn in by promises of easy profits and looking to make a quick buck.