Ken Paxton’s entry into the U.S. Senate race in Texas is becoming a major headache for Republicans.
Top GOP senators were maneuvering to undercut the Texas attorney general even before he announced his primary campaign this week against four-term Sen. John Cornyn. Others urged President Donald Trump after Paxton got into the race to endorse the incumbent leadership adviser and former chair of the Senate campaign arm with a deep donor base.
“The best thing would have been to keep Paxton out of the race,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a close Trump ally. He added that at this point he would tell Trump, if the president asked for his advice, to do “whatever is most helpful for John.”
Notably, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is staying neutral in the matchup between Cornyn and Paxton so far. And two members of the Texas delegation have already backed the challenger.
Paxton is just the start of the party’s primary problems. Republicans are on edge that Trump, if he chooses, could elevate more MAGA-aligned challengers to incumbents in several states, forcing a round of bitterly contested primaries. Senate Republican leaders are working to prevent a Trump-backed primary threat to Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, home to one of the most competitive races next November. And Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump following his impeachment in 2021’s riot at the Capitol, is facing a challenge from the right.
Republicans are holding out hope that Trump will help them fend off intraparty upsets that would complicate their Senate map next year. But they also know a single utterance from the president would be enough to upend their plans.
Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has said that he is working with Trump to ensure they are on the same page when it comes to protecting incumbents. Scott re-emphasized his support for Cornyn after Paxton jumped into what is expected to be the party’s most expensive primary fight of the cycle, calling him “a leader who delivers on President Trump’s agenda” and an “essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”
But the behind-the-scenes efforts by GOP leaders to persuade Trump to endorse Cornyn is cementing a well-known reality for Republicans: They need Trump but also know they can’t control him.
The Senate map is heavily tilted toward Republicans in 2026. But they are still eager to avoid what’s been a perennial problem for the party: watching untested candidates win primaries only to cost the party in the general election or force them to spend money on what should have been safe seats. In the 2022 midterms, Trump endorsed candidates like Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters and Herschel Walker who went on to lose hotly contested general elections.
Sen. Steve Daines, last cycle’s chair of the NRSC, went to great lengths to forge a different path, working closely with Trump to handpick candidates with better chances in the general election. He succeeded, helping to deliver the Senate majority to Republicans. But the GOP is playing more defense in 2026, including with incumbents facing new challenges from the right.
“Look, you always have to take primaries seriously, always,” Daines said. “What we tried to do at the NRSC last time is try to minimize that. But you’re always concerned about colleagues in a primary.”
Trump, Daines said, is keeping “a close eye” on Senate races.
Senate Republicans aren’t alone in trying to work Trump to get involved in primaries on their behalf — and in some cases, their efforts are having unintended consequences. Paxton entered the primary sooner than he otherwise would have because he learned Senate Majority Leader John Thune was trying to secure Trump’s endorsement for Cornyn, according to a person close to Paxton who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Paxton also has allies urging the president to endorse him, the person said.
Cornyn yoked himself to the president during the first two-and-a-half months of his second term and touted his previous work with Trump during his failed bid for majority leader last year. But Paxton has still made clear he will run a campaign accusing Cornyn of being insufficiently loyal to Trump.
Aides to Trump and the Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In North Carolina, Tillis has already drawn primary challengers and could face another bid from Michele Morrow, an inflammatory candidate who unsuccessfully ran for the state’s superintendent for public education last fall. Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, has also been floated as a potential challenger – though she recently signed on at Fox News Channel.
Tillis, asked if he had spoken with Trump or his team about an endorsement, said “it’s too early for me to get into those sort of discussions.”
But it’s Cassidy who Trump’s Senate allies are less certain will be able to work himself back into Trump’s good favor. Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming has already announced a run against him, and more Republican challengers are expected to jump into the fray. And while Cassidy has sided with Trump on major GOP causes this year, including providing a key vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead Trump’s Health and Human Services Department, some Senate Republicans aren’t sure that is enough to entice the president to his side.
Cramer, a close Trump ally, wasn’t certain that Trump could find his way to help the Louisiana Republican: “I don’t know — impeachment, that’s a tough one.”
Another Trump ally, granted anonymity to speak candidly, predicted there was “no way” the president would remain neutral, much less endorse Cassidy, in the primary. And the normally gregarious Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) declined to comment when asked if he was, or planned to be, in talks with Trump about endorsing or at least staying neutral in Cassidy’s race.
Cassidy was reluctant to discuss the possibility of facing a Trump-backed challenger on Wednesday.
“That’s kind of a silly question,” he said about that prospect. “I’m not worried about that.”
Asked if he had spoken with Trump or his team about an endorsement, he asked: “Where is this coming from?”
A key difference between Cassidy and other potentially endangered incumbents is that his seat in Louisiana is not in play in the general election, so the party’s fate isn’t tied to Cassidy winning his primary.
Cassidy is also facing a new obstacle as he tries to hold onto his seat: Louisiana did away with its unique primary system for congressional races that advances the top two vote-getters to a general election regardless of party (unless one candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote.) That means Cassidy will need to win over a more conservative and Trump-aligned electorate to advance to the general election.
If Trump targets Cassidy, it would open up a public split between Trump and Thune and the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, which backs incumbent senators. Not to mention that any money siphoned away from Republicans during the primary takes away from funding that could be spent in the general election on competitive races.
Asked if he had a similar conversation with Trump and his orbit for Cassidy as Republicans have done for Cornyn, Thune said in a brief interview that Republicans are taking the races “one at a time.”
“Obviously we’re invested in helping our incumbents,” Thune said, adding that he is working with the White House and the Senate GOP campaign arm to “make sure we’re in the best possible shape going into the midterm elections with both our candidates — incumbents, but also some challengers.”
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