US 10 year yield
The US 10-year yield fell sharply earlier in the day, reaching a low of 3.884%, just above Friday’s trough at 3.860%. As equity market losses pared back, yields began rebounding.
The recovery pushed the yield back above the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the September 2024 low at 4.061%, and then through a swing zone between 4.108% and 4.152%. The rally extended to a high of 4.212%, breaching the 50% retracement level at 4.204%, but stopping just shy of the 200-day moving average at 4.222%.
That 4.204%–4.222% zone now marks strong resistance. A rejection here and a move back below 4.108% could invite fresh downside momentum. Conversely, a sustained break above the 200-day MA would weaken the bearish technical case and suggest further upside risk for yields once again.
Pres. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent have been more concerned about interest rates versus stock prices since the start of the new term.
This morning he posted that rates are plummeting. Since the start of his 2nd term, the 10 year yields have moved from 4.75% to the current 4.22%, but compared to the low from 2024 at 3.60%, the yields are right around the midpoint of the range since the September 2022 low. So lower…yes.. but not by a lot. Plus, yields are lower because of slower growth.
Oil is also lower, but it is down on expectations of lower growth. OPEC+ also announced – surprisingly – that cuts in production would end. Adding supply when demand is expected to be lower is an interesting move.
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