USDCAD falls to the bottom of the recent range on positive Trump’s comments | Forexlive

Fundamental
Overview

The USD got a bit of a
boost on Monday following the better than expected US PMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve
also seen some bids in the greenback yesterday following the weak US Consumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped
to yet another high.

Overall, the market is
still pricing between two to three rate cuts this year and the sentiment
remains tentative as we approach the Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2^nd.

On the CAD side, the Loonie
strengthened yesterday following positive Trump’s
comments where he said that Canada and Mexico “have stepped it up a lot”, potentially
suggesting easier stance against the two main trading partners.

The Canadian Dollar’s faith
is tied to the US tariffs plan that is going to be unveiled on Wednesday and we
could see a strong rally in case we get softer than expected rates.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price fell to the lower bound of the recent range between the 1.4250 support and the 1.4540 resistance. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a move back into the 1.4380 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.4150 level next.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline now defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for the break below the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.4380 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Canadian GDP and the US
PCE report.