USDCAD moves higher to start the NA session | Forexlive

The USDCAD saw a modest decline at the start of the new trading week following Mark Carney’s victory in Canada’s Liberal Party leadership race, setting him up to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. Carney, a former central bank chief of both Canada and the U.K., is expected to call an election soon, aiming to leverage shifting political momentum against U.S. President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada.

Technically, the pair remained below the 100-hour moving average (MA) throughout the Asian session but gained upside momentum during the European session. As North American traders entered, the price moved above the 200-hour MA at 1.4391, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the February rally, reinforcing its technical significance. Holding above 1.4391 now serves as a key support level.

The next major test is the Friday high at 1.44258. A break above that level, and the 1.4448-1.4471 would be targeted. That is the upper boundary of the consolidation range from mid-December to early February (1.4268–1.4471). While tariff-related volatility has led to temporary breaks outside this “Red Box” (see chart) range, last week’s dip below 1.4268 failed to sustain, and Friday’s bounce from that level reaffirmed its importance as support.

Traders will be closely watching whether the pair sustains its move above 1.4391 and whether it can push through key resistance levels in the sessions ahead.

OVERVIEW TECHNICALLY…Buyers are more in control with the price above the 200-hour MA. Move below the 200 hour MA and then the 100 hour MA and the bias shifts. Eyeing 1.4448 to 1.4471 as the target resistance.