A month after sounding alarm over water scarcity Pakistan faces decrease volumes and fluctuations in river flows – OXBIG NEWS NETWORK

A month after Pakistan sounded an alarm over the scarcity of water within the Indus River System, the lifeline of its agro-economy, following the abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India, it’s dealing with a hydro-crises with unpredictable water releases by India, low storage ranges at its essential dams and non-availability of water knowledge.

Official data reveals that whereas there was a large fluctuation within the ranges of the Chenab River over the previous 5 weeks, the outflow within the Jhelum has been significantly lesser than final yr.

On the opposite hand, the extent within the Indus River was significantly greater in in the course of the first three weeks of May as in comparison with the identical interval final yr, however over the previous week, it has come right down to beneath what it was final yr.

Data launched by Pakistani institutions just like the Indus River System Authority and the Water and Power Development Authority reveals that from May 1 until June 4, the influx on the Marala Headworks in Pakistan, the primary barrage on the Chenab after it enters Pakistan, was 12.34 lakh cusecs in comparison with 13.33 lakh cusecs for this era final yr.

At the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum in Pakistan, the influx has been 15.19 lakh cusecs in the course of the aforementioned interval as in comparison with 22.29 lakh cusecs for final yr’s corresponding interval.

At Pakistan’s Tarbela Dam that lies on the Indus, the influx recorded over the previous 5 weeks was 43.59 lakh cusecs, considerably greater than 29.05 lakh cusecs over the identical interval final yr.

“There may be more than one reason for this. It could imply that probably there is now more utilisation of water on the Indian side. We had already written to Pakistan for modification of the treaty,” Dr Uttam Kumar Sinha, an skilled on trans-boundary rivers on the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis mentioned. “One would also need to study inflows of the past years to discern any trend related to environmental factors,” he added.

Agriculture accounts for about 25 per cent of the GDP and 40 per cent of the labour power in Pakistan’s beleaguered economic system. Water shortages would have a robust influence on that nation’s economic system, which has already recorded a decrease development price of two.68 per cent for 2024-25 in comparison with the goal of three.6 per cent.

The IWT was abrogated as a part of the retaliatory measures towards the phobia assault by Pakistan-backed terrorists at Pahalgam wherein 26 individuals have been killed on April 22. Reducing circulate of water within the aforementioned ‘western’ rivers, allotted post-Independence to Pakistan below the treaty, was a part of this motion.

After a spike to 66,548 cusecs within the Chenab on May 3 from the common outflows of 25,000-35,000 cusecs, India drastically lowered it to 11,423 cusecs. Fluctuating releases touched a excessive of 78,379 cusecs on May 30 after which plummeted to 22,062 cusecs on June 1 earlier than displaying a marginal enhance.

Flows within the Jhelum have remained persistently decrease throughout this era as in comparison with final yr. The highest influx at Mangla was 54,429 cusecs on May 9, which got here right down to 33,220 cusecs on June 4.

While inflows on the Tarbela Dam peaked at 1,81,100 cusecs on May 28, there was a pointy dip subsequently to 81,400 cusecs on May 4. For the previous two days, inflows have slipped beneath final yr’s figures. The highest influx throughout this era final yr was about 1,52,00 cusecs.

The complete capability of Tarbela Dam is 11.62 million acre toes (MAF) and that of the Mangla Dam is 7.3 MAF. The water availability as forecast by Pakistani authorities for the June 1-10 interval for these dams is 2-2.5 MAF and 0.75-0.85 MAF, respectively.

On the Indian facet, main dams on the Chenab embody Salal, Baglihar and Dul Hasti, and Krishanganga, Uri-I and Uri-II on the Jhelum. These are primarily hydro-power technology initiatives and have small storage capability. In addition, there are a number of run-of-the-river initiatives on tributaries feeding these rivers. There is one small dam, Nimoo Bazgo, on the Indus in Ladakh.

After the abrogation of the IWT, India had resorted to flushing out these dams to take away gathered silt and enhance the storage capability of their reservoirs. Sharing of hydrological knowledge with Pakistan was additionally stopped, which might have an effect on their forecasts and projections for water administration.

At current about 0.4 per cent of the water the western rivers, which have a complete annual circulate of 136 MAF, is being saved. The authorities is engaged on plans to reinforce this to 2 per cent.