Hectic two weeks leaves Russia assured – and peace in Ukraine feeling no nearer

It’s 2:30am.

Inside the Kremlin partitions I’m wandering alone by means of the huge grounds making an attempt – and failing – to seek out my approach out.

I spot a checkpoint, method and present my passport.

“Nyet vykhoda!” [“No exit!”] replies the guard. He factors in the other way.

I stroll again and, ultimately, come to a different checkpoint.

“No approach out!” says the sentry.

I’m misplaced. Inside the Kremlin. In the useless of evening.

It’s like being in a John le Carré novel.

It’s been fairly a night. I arrived at 5pm. Along with a small group of journalists, I’d been invited to “an occasion with President Putin”. What form of occasion? To start with the Kremlin would not say. Eventually we have been advised Vladimir Putin can be taking questions.

Eight hours later, the president strode into the Malachite Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace and sat at a desk.

But there’d been a change of plan. No press convention. No questions. Instead, reside on Russian TV, Putin delivered a press release wherein he proposed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

Event over, I stroll out of the Kremlin Palace however take a fallacious flip. Finally, I find the right exit and, bleary-eyed, take a taxi residence.

This was the beginning of what has turned out to be an actual rollercoaster of a fortnight. What started with a late-night Kremlin assertion continued with peace talks in Turkey after which a two-hour phone name between Putin and Donald Trump.

But, on the finish of it, are we any nearer to peace in Ukraine?

It would not really feel prefer it.

Although there may be speak about extra talks, and of а doable future “memorandum” on a “doable future peace”, all of it sounds fairly imprecise.

For now, the preventing goes on.

Russia remains to be refusing to enroll to an unconditional complete ceasefire. It has no intention of returning any of the Ukrainian land it has seized, occupied and claims to have annexed. On the opposite: it is pushing for extra.

Right now, the Ukraine peace course of resembles being misplaced within the Kremlin late at evening.

It’s laborious to see the exit.

And but the previous two weeks have revealed so much.

First, how Russia neutralises potential threats and strain factors.

Kremlin critics would put this one other approach: how Russia performs for time.

On 10 May (just a few hours earlier than I acquired misplaced within the Kremlin), after a telephone name with Donald Trump, European leaders had issued an ultimatum to President Putin: comply with an unconditional long-term ceasefire in Ukraine in two days or face crushing new sanctions.

Since March the Trump administration has been calling on Russia and Ukraine to just accept a 30-day complete ceasefire. Kyiv agreed. Moscow hasn’t.

The Kremlin chief sidestepped the European ultimatum together with his counter proposal of direct talks in Turkey. The thought was greeted with scepticism in Ukraine and throughout Europe. But it was sufficient to placate Trump and persuade him Russia was severe about wanting peace. He was all for the talks. “Crushing” new sanctions have been delayed.

Ahead of the Istanbul assembly on 16 May, President Trump appeared that Vladimir Putin may attend. The Kremlin chief didn’t, sending as an alternative a relatively low-level delegation that when extra rejected the concept of a long-term ceasefire. But, once more, the modest outcomes of the talks have been enough to influence the US president that progress was being made.

Then got here the Trump-Putin telephone name on 19 May.

By the top of it, Russia had nonetheless not agreed to a right away complete cessation of hostilities. Instead, in accordance with President Trump, “Russia and Ukraine will instantly begin negotiations towards a ceasefire and, extra importantly, an END to the War”.

But Moscow is already casting doubt on whether or not it will signal any future peace treaty with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. For a yr now the Russian authorities have been making an attempt to delegitimise Ukraine’s president for the reason that expiry of his presidential time period. However, Ukraine’s Constitution prohibits the holding of elections in wartime.

And the explanation for martial regulation in Ukraine is Russia’s invasion.

“Would Russia sit down and signal a peace settlement with President Zelensky?” I requested Russia’s overseas minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday.

“You’re placing the cart earlier than the horse,” Mr Lavrov replied. “First we have to have a deal. When it is agreed, then we are going to resolve. But, as President Putin has stated many instances, President Zelensky doesn’t have legitimacy… Probably the most suitable choice can be new elections…”

The Russian media has concluded that, after two weeks of diplomacy, Moscow has strengthened its hand.

“Russia has gained the most recent spherical of worldwide poker,” declared the Izvestia newspaper final week.

“Donald Trump’s stance could not be extra advantageous to Moscow,” wrote Kommersant. “In impact he backed Russia’s place of ‘Talks first, ceasefire later’ and refused to strengthen sanctions towards Russia.”

A social scientist advised Kommersant: “Donald Trump, at the least for now, is our ideological associate on sure points. His views are a lot nearer to Russia’s than to Europe’s.”

And the extremely pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda had this message for European leaders:

“You have been warned. Don’t wave threats and ultimatums within the face of the bear. Don’t attempt to impose situations in talks that don’t have anything to do with you.

“Just sit within the foyer and breathe within the odor of the brand new world order.”

Moscow’s confidence can be fuelled by the idea that, in Ukraine, it holds the initiative on the battlefield.

Back in 2023 Donald Trump had promised that, if he gained the presidency, “we can have the horrible warfare between Russia and Ukraine settled… I’ll get them each. I do know Zelensky, I do know Putin. It’ll be performed inside 24 hours, you watch”.

Trump has been within the Oval Office for greater than 4 months now, however the “horrible warfare” goes on.

On uncommon events, he has publicly rebuked the Kremlin and threatened additional sanctions. Last month he stated: “…there was no purpose for Putin to be taking pictures missiles into civilian areas, cities and cities, over the previous couple of days. It makes me suppose that possibly he would not wish to cease the warfare, he is simply tapping me alongside, and must be handled in a different way, by means of ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?'”

But there’s been no follow-through. The US president seems reluctant to ratchet up the strain on the Kremlin, as an alternative signalling to Moscow that he is eager to reboot US-Russia relations.

Following the presidents’ phone dialog, Putin’s overseas coverage advisor Yuri Ushakov, who’d sat in on the decision, advised journalists: “Trump spoke fairly emotionally concerning the prospects for [bilateral] relations. Trump sees Russia as one in every of America’s most necessary companions in commerce and financial issues.”

President Trump appears decided to push on together with his rapprochement with Russia, no matter occurs on Ukraine.

And Moscow senses that.

“President Trump doesn’t hyperlink continued US-Russia dialogue to the Ukraine peace course of,” was a headline within the Russian authorities paper Rossiyskaya Gazeta this week.

That doesn’t suggest the Kremlin has headed off the hazard of extra restrictions fully. The US Senate has threatened powerful new sanctions towards Russia if Moscow would not get severe about diplomacy.

Up up to now the Kremlin has been in a position to deflect or to sidestep no matter strain it is come below to make compromises and concessions relating to its warfare on Ukraine.

It appears assured it’ll proceed to take action.