Netanyahu Under Pressure as Ultra-Orthodox Parties Threaten to Dissolve Parliament

Israel’s opposition parties said they would bring a motion to dissolve Parliament to a vote on Wednesday, presenting the most serious challenge yet to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government and raising the specter of early elections.

If the motion passes, it is unlikely that the government will fall immediately. The parliamentary process before any final vote could take months, giving the prime minister time to shore up his increasingly fractious governing coalition or set his own agenda for a return to the ballot box. But it would deal a heavy blow to his political credibility.

The opposition parties are exploiting a crisis within the governing coalition over the contentious, decades-old policy that exempts ultra-Orthodox men who are studying religion in seminaries from compulsory military service.

Mr. Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, the United Torah Judaism and Shas parties, have been locked in dispute with other members of the government over proposals to limit exemptions. The issue has taken on more urgency, and spurred growing public anger and scrutiny, since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, ignited Israel’s war in Gaza.

United Torah Judaism has threatened to vote with the opposition, saying that it cannot accept the principle of drafting seminary students. If Shas also votes with the opposition, it could provide the majority needed to dissolve Parliament.

Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition commands a majority of 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Shas and United Torah Judaism hold 18 seats between them, giving them strong leverage.

The split inside the coalition has given the main opposition parties a political opportunity to challenge the government. While they support the move to enlist ultra-Orthodox religious students, they say their priority is to bring down Mr. Netanyahu’s government and force new elections.

The government, which was formed in late 2022, is the most right-wing and religiously conservative in Israel’s history. The next election would take place in October 2026 if it were to reach full term.

If the motion is passed on Wednesday, the bill would need to go to a parliamentary committee for review before returning to the assembly for further votes, and Mr. Netanyahu and his political allies could stall that process for months.

But analysts say that even preliminary approval to dissolve Parliament could further destabilize his government.

“The whole system would go into a different mode — election mode,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a political analyst and a former media adviser to Mr. Netanyahu. Losing a vote would indicate a lack of leadership on Mr. Netanyahu’s part, he added, and an inability to control his coalition.

Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting from Rehovot, Israel.