What is Netanyahu’s endgame in Iran?

Smoke and fire rise from an impacted facility site following a missile attack from Iran on Israel, at Haifa, Israel on June 15.
| Photo Credit: REUTERS

When Israel launched an all-out air war against Iran on June 13, it said the attack was aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear programme. On day one, Israel bombed Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility and several ballistic missile sites, besides assassinating the country’s top Generals, including the chief of the armed forces. In the subsequent days, Israel bombed the nuclear facility in Isfahan, Iran’s command centres, missile launchers, civilian locations and even the headquarters of the state TV. Israel has established air superiority over Iran. In retaliation, Iran launched close to 400 missiles, hitting several targets in Israel, including an oil refinery in Haifa and a top research institute near Tel Aviv.

While the air war is escalating, there are questions about Israel’s endgame. What does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want?

If it is the destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel is far from achieving it. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, said on June 16 that Israel’s attack “severely damaged if not entirely destroyed” the centrifuges at the Natanz facility. The Israeli strike had “completely destroyed” the above-ground facility at Natanz, according to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi. The underground hall housing the centrifuges that enrich uranium was not directly hit. “However, the loss of power to the cascade hall may have damaged the centrifuges there,” he said. Mr. Grossi also said four buildings were destroyed at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre — a chemical lab, a uranium conversion plant, a fuel manufacturing plant, and a facility to convert uranium hexafluoride to uranium metal. But there was no major damage to the Fordow enrichment plant, which is Iran’s most fortified facility that has been built deep under a mountain.

As Israel has aerial superiority, it can continue to bomb Iran. But there are two problems. One, Israel doesn’t have the kind of bunker buster bombs or strategic bombers that can carry such bombs to destroy heavily fortified facilities such as Fordow. Therefore, Israel’s offensive is not going to be concluded any time soon. And two, despite Israel taking out most of Iran’s chain of command in the initial strike, Tehran is hitting back with drones and ballistic missiles. Israel’s air strikes in Iran have not reduced the intensity of Iranian missile barrages. At least 24 people have been killed so far in Israel. The Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv, the country’s main airport, remained shuttered. If Israel’s air strikes do not blunt Iran’s fire power, Mr. Netanyahu could come under greater pressure at home to wrap up the war quickly. And if Israel accepts a ceasefire without destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, it could be seen as defeat.

This leaves Mr. Netanyahu with three options.

State collapse

One is to continue the relentless bombing of Iran, destroying state institutions and infrastructure, decapitating the regime and pushing for a state collapse or regime change in Tehran. On June 15, while speaking to Fox News, Mr. Netanyahu said Israel’s attack could lead to regime change in Iran. The next day, he refused to rule out assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, saying killing him would end the conflict. But there is a grey area.

Before starting the war, Mr. Netanyahu had urged the Iranians to rise against their government. But when Israel started widespread bombing across the country, killing hundreds of Iranians, it was an ‘I-told-you’ moment for the Iranian government, who always warned the public of the threats from “the Zionist entity”. So it is to be seen whether the Israeli bombings would weaken or strengthen the political and social roots of the regime.

Path of diplomacy

The second option is diplomacy.

Even after the Israeli strike began, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was open for a deal with Iran. On June 16, there were reports that Iran had sent feelers to America through Gulf Arab countries that it was ready to return to talks if Israel stopped bombing. Mr. Trump’s initial posts suggested that he wanted to use the Israeli strikes as an added layer of pressure on the Iranians to get the deal he wanted. While Iran is ready to scale back the programme, it is not ready to give up its capabilities. Mr. Trump wants Iran to completely abandon its nuclear programme. Even if Iran is ready to seriously consider Mr. Trump’s offer, will they return to talks when the country is under attack? So far Iran has said no. So the next question is whether Mr. Netanyahu will stop his attacks to facilitate talks between the U.S. and Iran? If that would be the case, why did Mr. Netanyahu start the war in the first place, three days ahead of a sixth round of talks between the U.S. and Iran? This indicates that a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran has never been Israel’s priority.

American involvement

The third option is to drag the U.S. into the war. Mr. Trump has so far maintained that America is not involved in the war. But he admitted that he was aware of Israel’s attack plans even when he publicly voiced opposition to them. Israeli officials say they went ahead after getting “a clear green light” from the U.S. Mr. Trump has warned Iran not to target American bases or soldiers. And Iran has been careful not to escalate the war beyond Israel. But Israeli officials, according to Axios, are pressing the U.S. to join the war because Israel needs American military involvement to meet their objectives — total destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities either through direct strikes or through regime change.

If Tehran falls, that would be an added boost for Israel’s efforts to reshape West Asia. The Assad regime in Syria is already gone. Iran’s network of militants has been weakened. Gaza lies in ruins. In the West Bank, Israel is free to do whatever it wants to do. Arab nations voice protests meekly. If Iran is weakened, Russia’s remaining strategic influence in West Asia will shrink further. China will be more dependent on America’s Gulf Arab allies for oil. Mr. Trump’s position, as of now, is to let Israel continue the bombing. He will not call for a ceasefire. But as the war drags on, with both Israel and Iran hitting each other, Mr. Trump will come under greater pressure to join the war.