Why an Ukraine-style evacuation of Indians is not possible in Iran

When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in 2022, India swiftly launched ‘Operation Ganga’ to evacuate thousands of its citizens, mostly students, from the conflict zone. But as tensions escalate in West Asia, a similar large-scale evacuation from Iran may not be as easy.

From geography and airspace restrictions to diplomatic sensitivities and the nature of the threat, multiple factors make an “Iran operation” far more complex and challenging.

SIZE OF THE OPERATION

There are about 10,000 Indians in Iran. Of which, there are approximately 1,500-2,000 students and 6,000 people who have been living and working there. Besides this, there are a number of Indian sailors and those associated with shipping-related operations. On the other hand, around 22,500 Indian nationals returned from Ukraine to India between February and March 2022.

Due to security concerns and logistical constraints, the government has not given the evacuation from Iran any name as it did in the case of ‘Operation Ganga’ from Ukraine. As many as 90 evacuation flights were operated under Operation Ganga, including 14 Indian Air Force flights from the neighbouring countries.

The operation was relatively smooth because Indian evacuation flights operated without any hindrance from multiple locations such as Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, and Poland.

DIFFICULT NEIGHBOURHOOD

In the case of Iran, geopolitics is in the way of the operation. Though the number of Indians willing to return is relatively small, the available evacuation routes and options are limited.

Evacuating via eastern neighbours of Iran like Pakistan and Afghanistan is not only a logistical challenge but also geopolitically difficult. On one hand, the Pakistani airspace is shut for India. Land route evacuation is also out of the question.

Though India-Afghanistan relations have improved over the past few months, the logistical challenge remains. Air evacuation is not possible because the flights will have to cross Pakistani airspace, which is out of bounds.

THE EASTERN AND WESTERN FLANKS

During the initial days of the Russia-Ukraine war, thousands of people, including Indians, could leave Ukraine as the western borders were largely open and were not on Russian targets.

The fighting was mainly concentrated in the eastern territories such as Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv. However, in the case of Iran, the aerial attacks carried out by the Israeli Air Force are widespread and not concentrated to specific geographies.

TRANSPORT REMAINS AN ISSUE

The road and rail connectivity in Ukraine largely remain operational even during the ongoing conflict. So, it was easier for people to get to safer locations and land border crossings like Lviv (Poland border) and Chernivtsi (Hungarian border). But, in the case of Iran, road and rail connectivity remains unreliable.

EXIT TEHRAN PITCH

The Indian embassy in Tehran has asked Indians residing in the capital city to leave. Indian nationals have been advised to move to safe locations outside the city using their own resources.

The evacuation process has already begun. The first batch of around 110 people, mostly students, has crossed over to Armenia. Around 600-700 people have been moved to the safer city of Qom in central Iran.

Qom is an important religious site having various mosques and seminaries, including the famous Azam mosque. There are other cities such as Arak, Khorammabad, Isfahan, Tabriz and Kermanshah, which remain out of bound because of nuclear and military facilities.

WHY ARMENIA?

The Iranian airspace remains shut due to the ongoing conflict. Therefore, the land route becomes the only available option for those who want to leave Iran.

The situation is quite similar to what happened in Ukraine, whose airspace remains closed till date. During ‘Operation Ganga’, Indians were evacuated via land route to countries like Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Slovakia, and Poland. The maximum evacuation happened via Poland because of better connectivity and good relations with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi did thank Poland for their help during his visit last year.

Iran shares land borders with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The last two are the least preferred options because of logistic challenges and bilateral relations. In any case, Pakistan’s airspace is closed for Indian flights after Operation Sindoor.

In the recent conflict, Azerbaijan openly supported Pakistan, due to which it becomes an undesirable option.

Turkmenistan still remains an option as the capital city of Ashgabat is close to Iran. The next batch of Indians may likely take the Turkmenistan route to get out of Iran.

The geostrategic compatibility between Armenia and India makes the former a preferred choice.